Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 3.847224 4.504911 5.232485 6.095863 7.091221 8.201488 9.532551
2025-10-12 2.857796 3.749382 4.842322 6.274957 8.097171 10.330776 13.268886
2025-10-19 2.246856 3.241899 4.570071 6.459081 9.060817 12.499838 17.368265
2025-10-26 1.790154 2.804422 4.261024 6.481685 9.752229 14.355958 21.281098
2025-11-02 1.411721 2.381736 3.869115 6.280934 10.048820 15.651841 24.535226
2025-11-09 1.109580 2.004779 3.462648 5.963428 10.084487 16.522320 27.219685
2025-11-16 0.917995 1.765517 3.223188 5.853530 10.399865 17.819690 30.670177
2025-11-23 0.775969 1.581920 3.040159 5.797397 10.776024 19.231743 34.436522
2025-11-30 0.704012 1.512297 3.042507 6.058455 11.718564 21.674157 40.173266
2025-12-07 0.614383 1.389889 2.925030 6.076332 12.217238 23.391450 44.823649
2025-12-14 0.534817 1.272095 2.795717 6.047840 12.616861 24.961613 49.359432
2025-12-21 0.470559 1.174399 2.689930 6.047020 13.062223 26.651545 54.274837
2025-12-28 0.457468 1.192039 2.832862 6.589334 14.678501 30.772776 64.305647
2026-01-04 0.418403 1.141527 2.820951 6.802165 15.650609 33.755764 72.463838
2026-01-11 0.383238 1.093560 2.806922 7.007916 16.633517 36.865460 81.200568
2026-01-18 0.341487 1.019969 2.720597 7.034812 17.227058 39.234408 88.661751
2026-01-25 0.292492 0.916256 2.543342 6.818892 17.243007 40.380546 93.669583
2026-02-01 0.244889 0.805495 2.328525 6.476231 16.915626 40.739235 97.009804
2026-02-08 0.214003 0.736477 2.210200 6.357599 17.104574 42.258350 103.047635
2026-02-15 0.189515 0.681353 2.119704 6.296985 17.426404 44.109540 110.011261
2026-02-22 0.179893 0.671552 2.154602 6.579025 18.648864 48.182976 122.478663
2026-03-01 0.162643 0.632467 2.097926 6.598340 19.191094 50.684904 131.480135
2026-03-08 0.145909 0.591182 2.027451 6.567565 19.596075 52.892408 139.984780